Essays and Musings

The Curse of the Quickly Caught First Fish

Which of you Stalkers out there is a statistician? Volunteers, anyone? Here’s your task: If there are x number of fish per river mile, what are the odds of catching a fish within the first five casts, then not catching another fish the remaining 500 casts before calling it a day? My recent experience at Williams Creek made me think of this phenomena.

Am I the only one out there who has suffered from “The Case of the Quickly Caught First Fish” (TCQCF²)? I doubt I am. And I doubt there is a statistical analysis formula capable of determining the odds of QCF².

From a distance, I see the trout rise. I approach the water with respect and caution. The trout is wary and it does no good to storm the bank, splash into the river and flail the water. I must approach soft of foot and light of hand. Gently easing into the water, I am now in trout’s realm.

Another rise.

I silently pull line from the reel then swish the rod tip back and forth to feed line out without letting it touch the water. Measuring each cast against the last riseform until the fly gently settles six feet above the trout.

Again the rise. On my fly.

A swift lift of the rod tip sets the hook. I quickly land the trout, then gently release it.

What happens after this QCF²? The next few moments may be the critical juncture that decides the remainder of the day’s fishing.

I turn in Dan’s direction, who is still on shore, out of sight and awaiting the verdict.

“Did you catch one?” he asks.

“Oh yeah, that was easy. We’re gonna slay ‘em!”

Is this a time when the Fates intervene and give the angler his comeuppance for such a brazen outburst?

Or does the angler decide his own destiny by making some sort of change in tactics or delivery—some type of carelessness creeping in because of the familiarity he thinks he suddenly has because of the QCF²?

Or, let’s say the angler is alone, says nothing, thinks nothing about this QCF². Is there still something in the subconscious that causes a letting down of the guard—an ever so subtle shift?

Or is it just statistical probability keeping the odds in balance?

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Discussion

9 comments for “The Curse of the Quickly Caught First Fish”

  1. I thought it was just me. It seems like catching a fish in the first few casts is a death knell for the rest of the excursion. It is a very bad omen indeed.

    Posted by Anthony | July 8, 2009, 8:41 am
  2. I swear that you are on to something here Scott. This happened to me not once, or twice but THREE times on Monday. I went to my favorite westslope stream and bam fish on the first cast. Afterwards it was a struggle to catch a fish for the next 1/2 mile of stream. After I went to a redband stream and the fishing was crazy for the first 1/4 mile. Then as if a switch was flipped it totally died. It turned out hear that WDFW had just electroshocked the stream making the fish a little relucant to feed. The next spot I caught one fish in the first pool and every single other fish came off beforeI could get them in. Totally crazy day…

    Posted by Gary | July 8, 2009, 5:39 pm
  3. Sounds good Scott, if you could send the ones that Dan got of my fish to me when you get back as well, that would be great. I am just waiting to see if his turned out better than the ones I have before posting a trip report on the blog.

    Posted by Gary | July 9, 2009, 1:59 pm

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